This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 7, until 5pm EST on August 14. This is intended as a regular series.
Something happens is defined as anything that:
Zvi does NOT know about on August 7, 2026 at 5pm EST.
Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase
Is about AI.
The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern.
It is 100% entirely Zvi's judgment on whether a post was obligated or merely allowed.
Resolves YES if this happens.
Resolves NO if it does not.
If you are betting YES because you believe something has happened, and it has not yet been mentioned in the comments, please mention it and link to it in the comments.
To avoid leaking information, I will not resolve this market before close unless either (A) the post has been published, or (B) it is trading 90%+ and I know that it will eventually resolve YES.
Update 2026-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified how the threshold for a speed premium post is applied:
OpenAI's Astra solving ten open math problems would not have passed the bar (allowed but not obligated).
OpenAI model hacking HuggingFace, Claude Opus 5 posts, and the Frontier Lab employee open letter would have passed.
1,000Are all of these considered speed premium?
OpenAI Model Hacks Into HuggingFace
More On An Internal OpenAI Model Hacking Into HuggingFace
Claude Opus 5 posts
Frontier Lab Employee Open Letter
Further Developments About Internal AI Models Hacking Things
OpenAI's Astra Solves Ten Open Math Problems
@vi I would say that the math problems would not have passed the bar, as it allowed but did not obligate. The others would have passed.