Will I (mostly) have to read the whole AI executive order?
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resolved Oct 31
Resolved
YES

Resolves to YES if I end up reading 75% or more of Biden's upcoming AI executive order, expected to be about 111 pages, by market close.

Resolves to NO if the EO comes out and I do not do that by market close, or I have not and am 99% sure I will not do so.

Resolves N/A ifan EO about AI does not get released by November 8, or if the EO that is released is 10 pages or shorter.

Lobbying for your side is highly encouraged.

I will not trade this market until I am ready to resolve it.

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I'm convinced and plan to read it today, but of course I could fail to finish if it surprises me.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

yeah, this is pretty much a must. Probably the most important event ever on the policy side of AI safety

predicted YES

To take just one example: people are now openly misreporting the section 4.2 reporting requirements as a "ban on math" instead of dealing with their far gnarlier other issues on risk of overbroadness (for which I credit a discussion with @patio11 here: https://x.com/patio11/status/1719180676040106376?s=20).

So I think, yeah, you really should read it.

Damn it all to hell.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

You should read this executive order because it is highly likely to represent, to some significant degree, the existing state of US executive branch thinking and capability on AI and the near-future actions it will take.

The most likely process for generating various rounds of drafts of the EO requires various executive agencies (and, likely, outside stakeholders like think tanks and AI orgs) to be asked 1. for their opinions on what they currently believe are problems and 2. what they could plausibly commit to do to help address that.

Beyond that, this is the big reference document for the next 15 months for the executive branch on AI, regardless of whatever happens in 2024. The EO's language will get incorporated-by-reference into lots of other decisions downstream, and will likely drive lots of actions by executive branch agencies. (Admittedly, in some instances people will, ah, quote selectively to give themselves permission to do what they already wanted to do, but even then, they'll be limited somewhat by how far the language can be bent.)

In other words, the "thou shalt and shalt not" of this EO will reveal quite a lot.

(Note that I also think it's separately interesting for you to just generally read an EO if you've never done so before -- they are fascinating documents, conceptually -- but I assume you very likely have.)

predicted YES

@DaveK I would also take on more size on my position if this market was thicker, but am unwilling to trade this up any farther.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@DaveK i agree with all of this, and would add that so much discourse is vibes-based that you won't be able to trust anyone else's summary if you are going to do any work at all.