Model scores over 50% on GDPVal by EOY 2025? | Manifold

Model scores over 50% on GDPVal by EOY 2025?

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Resolves to YES if any model released in 2025 gets over 50% on the newly released GDPVal by April 1, 2026.

Resolves to NO if not.

Resolves to NO as early as January 1, 2026 if there is no plausible model that has not yet been evaluated, that might exceed 50%.

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OpenAI's blog post and paper on GDPval for reference:

https://openai.com/index/gdpval/
https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/d5eb7428-c4e9-4a33-bd86-86dd4bcf12ce/GDPval.pdf

I'm slightly impressed that OpenAI created a new benchmark on which Claude beats them.

it's 2.4% away and it has now become a target

You mean gdpval? I can update the title if you want

@ian I'll just go ahead

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