Will Anthropic reach 50 billion in ARR by the end of June?

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Jun 30

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This will resolve yes if any credible reporting, including from Anthropic itself, reports that Anthropic's annual revenue run rate is at least 50 billion. It resolves no if there is no such reporting by the end of June 2026 (eastern time).

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Anthropic

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Anthropic reached $47B ARR halfway through May. Their monthly growth rate (~45% YTD) can slow by an order of magnitude and still make $50B. It won’t (slow that much), but you know, even if it did…

@DavidHiggs I think the largest uncertainty is when their next arr report will be

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 80% order

@BenAybar it can be another SemiAnalysis/Forbes/Reuters/etc. though, doesn’t have to be an official Anthropic announcement. Reporting good enough to resolve this market has come at a rate of >1/m recently (unless I’m misunderstanding the res criteria)

@DavidHiggs you aren't misunderstanding the resolution criteria i just think there is certainly some real probability of not getting more reporting about arr in june

Annual recurring revenue or annual revenue run rate? The former refers specifically to revenue from subscriptions / long-term contracts, while the latter is the more commonly reported number (for Anthropic), and I think is the one you mean.