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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic reach 50 billion in ARR by the end of June?
19
Ṁ1kṀ2.4k
Jun 30
85%
chance

This will resolve yes if any credible reporting, including from Anthropic itself, reports that Anthropic's annual revenue run rate is at least 50 billion. It resolves no if there is no such reporting by the end of June 2026 (eastern time).

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  • Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on annual revenue run rate (not annual recurring revenue). The run rate is the more commonly reported figure for Anthropic.

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Annual recurring revenue or annual revenue run rate? The former refers specifically to revenue from subscriptions / long-term contracts, while the latter is the more commonly reported number (for Anthropic), and I think is the one you mean.

@rogs thanks for pointing that out, fixed the error

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