Will Trump authorize privateers (i.e. issue letters of marque & reprisal) to go after drug cartels?
Will Trump authorize privateers (i.e. issue letters of marque & reprisal) to go after drug cartels?
14
615Ṁ6372Dec 26
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Trump issues any letters of marque against any drug cartels, and NO if he has not done so before market close (i.e. December 25th, 2025).
For a YES resolution, anything that captures the spirit of what is being described in this Twitter thread by GOP senator Mike Lee would be sufficient.
For context, Wikipedia lists some examples where this has been considered for 21st century America. E.g. House bill H.R.6869 would have authorized the president to issue letters of marque & reprisal to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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