If the United States government has taken control of at least some part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times.

Resolves identically to this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcanal/panama-canal-retaken

• Update 2025-20-01 (PST): - Control means the United States assumes new primary operational authority over some part of the canal. (AI summary of creator comment)