Auction link: Antonio Stradivari | The Joachim-Ma Violin
The pre-auction estimate is 12 - 18 million USD. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Sotheby's website is >16 million USD.
Resolution details
Example from a past auction: this painting by Gentilesch has a "price realised" of USD 982,800. This is the equivalent number I will use—whatever is displayed by the auction page.
Note that the final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium (and potentially other fees).
If the lot is not put up for bidding at the auction for any reason, this market resolves N/A (edit: sweepstakes market will be extended to see if it is put up at a later auction, and resolve NO if it is not auctioned by the end of May 2025). If it is bid on at the auction, but does not ultimately sell, it resolves NO.
Details
Ask any member of the public who the greatest violin maker was, and they will have a name ready at hand. Ask the same question of any violin afficionado, amateur or professional, and they will have the same reply: Antonio Stradivari. Such consensus is rare in any field, let alone the specialist and relatively obscure craft of lutherie. Connoisseurs might point to a few other violin makers like Amati or Guarneri who might, for argument’s sake, be rivals to the crown, but the remarkable fact is that they all came from the same northern Italian city of Cremona, and lived between three and four hundred years ago, as did Stradivari. No other musical instrument maker of any sort has become so embedded in the public consciousness or the cultural domain. (Lot essay)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ634 | |
| 2 | Ṁ594 | |
| 3 | Ṁ424 | |
| 4 | Ṁ275 | |
| 5 | Ṁ113 |
Unfortunately, art auctions depend not just on the greatness of the art, but the degeneracy of the rich people at the auction. Seems like they were in a bad mood this morning! (Very high variance). It only sold for $11.25M (after buyer's premium, bidding action below).
I'll run more of these soon, but I'd rather wait til the bigger auctions in early March, and those lots aren't up yet. So keep your eye out a few weeks from now!
@PoliticalEconomyPK auctions can be super high variance! i'm sure behind the scenes, the auction house is doing what it can to secure/confirm interest/action in advance, but it seems in practice they're still willing to "see what happens" in the moment, and sometimes you just can't find two bidders who happen to be interested in the moment
Hi all! I'm doing the equivalent of a PHD in classical music performance, and I'm both a violist and a violinist. I've been obsessed with instruments my whole life, and instrument shop owners regularly ask for my opinions on fine instruments.
The auction record for a Strad was set at nearly $16m in 2011, and they've come close since then. That violin was extremely well preserved and had historical value, but wasn't made during his "Golden period" (1707-1717; the Blunt was made in 1721) and wasn't named after a particularly famous musician who'd played it. The Joachim Strad is from the peak of the Golden period and is named after Joseph Joachim, one of the most famous and influential violinists ever.
Adding to the pedigree, this instrument seems to have been lost during, and discovered after, both world wars, only changing hands via private loan or sale. This is essentially the first time it's ever been on the market. The cherry on top is that the money is being used to create a scholarship fund for one of the top music schools in the world (NEC is pretty easily top 5, probably top 3).
For all these reasons, I'm confident this will blow the record out of the water. I'm open to conversation!
@GleamingRhino I know them from real life. (They're one of my referrals to Manifold if you want to confirm that on my profile page.) I can attest that they are being genuine with the analysis and credential claim.
However, there is no precognition here. There is still a chance we all still lose on YES if a gagillionare doesn't bid high enough.
