Will the Chinese film "Ne Zha 2" outgross "Avatar: The Way of Water" (globally) within 6 months? (>$2.3B)
19
100Ṁ839
Aug 12
7%
chance

The film "Ne Zha 2" (2025) is a box office sensation. Previously, the highest grossing movie in a single market was "The Force Awakens" with $936M in the US. "Ne Zha 2" has already surged past $1.2B, and could surpass $2B in China alone.

This market resolves YES if "Ne Zha 2" has worldwide gross >$2,313,161,020 by August 11th, and NO otherwise.

  • My default source will be TheNumbers.com, but box office numbers from China can be inconsistent so I will use a consensus of credible reporting as needed.

  • Most of my movie markets are designed to resolve promptly, but I want to give extra time for "Ne Zha 2" to release in more markets (although I'm not aware of plans for a huge global wide release), so I'm setting 6 months as the deadline. I might resolve early if it's clear that there are no plans for more releases (or obviously it resolves YES).

  • Update 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Included Versions:

    • All dubbed and subbed versions (including alternative editions such as sing-along versions) are included in the total gross.

Reporting Note:

  • Although Chinese box office figures can be inconsistent (with some sources only showing domestic numbers), the resolution will use comprehensive figures from credible reporting sources when available.

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