Simone Biles is widely considered to be the greatest gymnast of all time—she has 23 gold medals at the World Championships, 14 more than the nearest competitor. Despite, that, at the most recent Olympics in Tokyo, Simone only won two medals—many fewer than expected.
At this Olympic Games, Simone plans to bring the heat (and a floor routine with music from Taylor Swift & Beyonce). The biggest medal in gymnastics is the Individual All-Around where Simone Biles will face her teammate (and reigning Individual All-Around champion) Sunisa Lee and Brazilian phenom Rebeca Andrade among others chomping at the bit. Will Simone Biles fend off her challengers and win the Gold?
This market will close before the Individual All-Around final begins.
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/Ziddletwix/will-simone-biles-win-the-gold-meda-kv68d3cixa
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3.00@traders GOAT. Simone messed up on the bars, and fell slightly behind, but she did well on the beam to retake the lead over Rebeca, and then put on a masterclass in the floor exercise to leave the field a full point behind, cruising to her second gold in the all-around.
She's got tomorrow off, and then she'll compete in three apparatus events—I've got markets up for each. Plus, for a neat puzzle—how many different countries will win a medal? After two events, it's still the minimum of 3, when will we get our first upstarts breaking into the pack?
/Ziddletwix/will-simone-biles-win-the-gold-meda-kv68d3cixa
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/Ziddletwix/which-medal-if-any-will-simone-bile
you're welcome to send me the 10,000 mana it costs to leave it open & then i'll reopen it!
@Ziddletwix It's a shame there's no way to remove a liquidity subsidy at a given time, like when the event starts.
To preview the all-around final, check out this Reddit post tallies each athlete's highest score per event (between team final & qualifying), which gives a rough sense of what to expect. Simone has a solid lead—bout ~1.3 ahead of Rebeca Andrade at #2 (who is likely
On the other hand. if you tally their scores in the team final, Simone's lead over Rebeca shrinks to 0.366 (source)—meaningful, but only a few stumbles away. Although Team USA was cruising to a dominant gold medal win, so maybe Simone could afford to be more conservative.
Overall ~70%-ish seems ~plausible—she's the obvious favorite (GOAT continuing as best performer in Paris) but in a single event just a few missteps and you lose the gold.
@traders ~24 hours left to lock in your bets! After that, here are the markets for Simone's 3 individual apparatus events:
/Ziddletwix/will-simone-biles-win-the-gold-meda-kv68d3cixa
Will Simone Biles win the gold medal in the Vault at the 2024 Paris Olympics? 🥇72%
This market closes in 3 days—if you want to keep betting, check out the market for how many different countries will win any medal (open for live betting til the end). In Tokyo, 9 different countries won a medal, but if Biles & co are more dominant this year, it might be way harder for smaller countries to place on the podium.
Three days left! Full qualifying results here. As other comments have noted, Biles has been nursing a calf injury, so that's reason for caution. On the other hand, she (nonetheless) cruised to the #1 overall score on the qualifying day (as expected), so I (as a big-ish YES holder) am not too worried yet:
#1 score in floor exercise
#1 score in vault
#2 score in beam
she only (barely) failed to make the final with her #9 finish in uneven bars (top 8 advance)
Simone Biles is injured, so 60% odds seem really high.