• "Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page

• I will resolve these markets based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics not audiences) two weeks after release (i.e. July 12th).

Details

• I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal—note that these are strict inequalities).

• For example, the Kevin Costner directed "Dances with Wolves" (1990) currently has a Tomatometer of 87%. This is the equivalent number I will use (i.e. >86% would resolve YES, and >87% would resolve NO).

Context

• Some reviews were released after its Cannes debut (at the time of question creation, the score is 43%), but I expect many more reviews to drop once it's released in theaters so the score may shift a good deal.

• Kevin Costner has (reportedly) spent $38 million of his own money to bring this film to fruition, and whether or not this movie badly flops, "Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 2" will release August.