These options resolve YES if Donald Trump says the exact sequence of words during his upcoming 2025 address to a joint session of Congress, currently scheduled for March 4th.

• Technically, the address to Congress after a new presidential inauguration is not an official "State of the Union", but I wanted to keep the market title simple (& Wikipedia calls it an "Unofficial State of the Union Address").

• You can add your own options, but note: (1) I will be strict with resolutions & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.

• Resolution may take a few days as I'd like to reference the transcript.

• For reference, here is the transcript for Trump's 2017 address to Congress. 

Resolution rules:

• Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".

• Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".

• However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions also count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").

• An abbreviation is its own word: "MAGA" does not match "Make America Great Again", "LGBT" does not match "LGBTQ".

• Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" matches "January sixth".

• To add flexibility to an answer, use parentheses or an "or". So " 'Free lunch(es)' or 'school lunch(es)' " matches "free lunches", "school lunch", & etc.

• Does not resolve on any single transcript—if a case is unclear I will listen to what he says and aim to consider what a reasonable transcription would be. Mispronunciations do not count, if I can clearly tell what he is trying to say that is the word that counts. If it would be similarly reasonable to transcribe things two different ways, likely both will count for YES.

• Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): OpenAI vs AI Clarification:

  • The transcript must match the words exactly as outlined in the resolution criteria.

  • If the transcript includes OpenAI, it will not be considered equivalent to AI.

• Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:

  • Exact Word Matching: All words must appear exactly as specified. Variations such as possessives (e.g. Melania’s vs Melania) will not count.

  • Important Note: This clarification reinforces that different forms (plural, possessive, etc.) are considered distinct and will not resolve as a YES.