PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION BEFORE BETTING 

Yesterday, the New York Times released their annual predictions for the Academy Awards: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/movies/oscar-predictions-odds.html

Last night, I computed the average probability for each winner across many different Manifold markets (more details here). Manifold's "Oscar predictions" are the nominees with the highest probability within each category on this spreadsheet.

• Manifold's predictions are defined by the linked spreadsheet—i.e. based on the market probabilities as of Wednesday (they won't change if the markets shift), and my best good faith attempt to compute the Manifold consensus.

• I am excluding the three short film categories, leaving 20 categories in total.

Results

The predictions only differ for three categories:

• Production Design

  • NYT: Barbie

  • Manifold: Poor Things

• Costumes

  • NYT: Poor Things

  • Manifold: Barbie

• Makeup & Hairstyling

  • NYT: Poor Things

  • Manifold: Maestro

If Manifold correctly predicts more of these awards, this market resolves YES. Otherwise (including the case of a tie), it resolves NO.

If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask.