Context: "On 19 October 2025, a robbery occurred at the Louvre in Paris, France in which part of the French Crown Jewels was stolen." (Wikipedia)
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if any perpetrators involved in the physical robbery of the Louvre on October 19th are apprehended by authorities before the start of December 25th (Paris time). Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution details:
The fact that the police arrest/indict/etc someone does not prove they were the culprit. To handle this, after the police apprehend someone, I plan to wait up to a month. If there's no consensus of credible reporting implying that they were likely not the culprit, it will resolve YES.
Thus, I will not require conclusive proof that the police are correct to apprehend someone, more like "it's been a month and there isn't clear evidence against them being the culprit".
This market requires them to be apprehended before the start of Christmas day. Thus, if police announce an arrest on Dec 24, I might leave this market open for up to a month to confirm that they aren't exonerated before resolving YES (but that would still count).
As implied above: (1) this does not require all robbers to be apprehended (even a single arrest would count), but (2) there needs to be clear evidence that they were directly involved in the actual robbery itself. It does not count if the police arrest people who were accomplices but not involved in the robbery itself.
This can be a tricky market to define, so I'll answer questions as they come up in the comments (& traders beware of those ambiguities).
Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Apprehended" means taken into physical custody by legal authorities. A manhunt or identification of suspects without physical custody does NOT count for YES resolution. The authorities holding custody do not need to be French - a wide range of legal authorities would count.
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I'm honestly curious what people are thinking here. 80% of murders in France are caught (according to a random google search) and there's actual video of the thing happening - at the very least, we can guess height and build of one of the people who did it. And bystanders thought they were maintenance crew or something - so police almost certainly got eyewitness descriptions.
Is this purely a bet along the lines of "If the robbers were expecting to get caught, they wouldn't have done it"? Or a bet that the robbers are already hidden away in some other country that will shelter them? Or what?
(Btw, @Ziddletwix , if the authorities have an ongoing manhunt for the known perpetrators, but the perpetrators are still at large, is that a YES or a NO? Are we betting on "conclusively identified" or "physically in custody, in France"?)
@DannyqnOht “manhunt” doesn’t sound like “apprehended”, unless I’m misunderstanding? Certainly, “we think we know who did it but we can’t find them” isn’t enough for YES. I’m thinking of “apprehended” as something close to “taken into custody by legal authorities” (so tldr it requires some sort of physical custody, but a wide range of authorities would count, not just France)
A similar theft in 2019 took about a year to resolve.