Resolution Criteria

The market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31st, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC, at least one individual officially identified by French authorities as a "main perpetrator" of a Louvre heist occurring in October 2025 is publicly reported as having been arrested. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

An individual will be considered a "main perpetrator" if they are publicly identified by French law enforcement (such as the National Police or Gendarmerie) or judicial authorities (such as the Public Prosecutor's office or an Investigating Judge) as having played a significant, leading role in the planning or execution of the heist. Mere accomplices, accessories, or individuals arrested for related but secondary offenses will not qualify as "main perpetrators" for the purpose of this market.

"Officially arrested" means that French law enforcement or judicial authorities have publicly confirmed the apprehension of the individual in connection with the specified heist. This confirmation must be reported by at least two major, reputable French news outlets (e.g., Agence France-Presse, Le Monde, Le Figaro) or directly via official statements from the French Ministry of Interior or Ministry of Justice.

In the event of conflicting reports, official statements from the French Ministry of Interior or Ministry of Justice will take precedence.

Background

The Louvre Museum, located in Paris, is one of the world's largest museums. On October 19, 2025, a four-person commando team carried out a spectacular heist, breaking into the Apollo Gallery using a cherry picker truck. They stole eight jewels from the French Crown Jewels, of priceless heritage value, before fleeing on scooters. Criminal investigations in France are conducted by the judicial police, under the supervision of the Public Prosecutor's Office, and the main law enforcement agencies (National Police, Gendarmerie) operate under the authority of the Ministry of the Interior.

Considerations

The market's resolution hinges on the official identification and public reporting of an individual as a "main perpetrator" by French authorities. This distinction aims to differentiate individuals with a primary role in the heist from those with lesser involvement, such as accomplices, as defined by French criminal law. Traders should focus on official statements and reports from credible French news sources for verification.