Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual(s) directly involved in the Louvre robbery that occurred on October 19, 2025, are officially reported as apprehended (arrested or taken into custody) by a reputable source (e.g., French police, INTERPOL, major international news agencies like Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, or major news outlets like The Guardian, Le Monde, The New York Times, BBC) before the United States federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, officially ends.

The market will resolve to "No" if the US federal government shutdown officially ends before any such apprehension is officially reported.

The US government shutdown will be considered officially ended when Congress passes and the President signs into law legislation to fully fund the government, and federal agencies resume normal operations. Resolution sources for the US government shutdown will include official US government websites (e.g., WhiteHouse.gov, Congressional websites) or major reputable news agencies.

Background

On October 19, 2025, a robbery occurred at the Louvre Museum in Paris, France, resulting in the theft of eight pieces of the French Crown Jewels, valued at €88 million. The heist, which took less than eight minutes, occurred during the museum's regular operating hours. Over 100 investigators are actively working on the case, and the stolen jewels have been added to INTERPOL's Stolen Works of Art database.

Simultaneously, the United States federal government initiated a shutdown on October 1, 2025, due to a congressional failure to pass appropriations legislation for the 2026 fiscal year. As of October 25, 2025, the shutdown has entered its 25th day with no resolution in sight, leading to the furlough of approximately 900,000 federal employees and leaving another 2 million working without pay. The shutdown has impacted various federal programs and services, with potential delays in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits in several states if the impasse continues beyond October 31, 2025.

Considerations

The term "apprehended" specifically refers to the arrest or taking into custody of individuals suspected of involvement in the Louvre robbery. It does not require a conviction or the recovery of the stolen items for market resolution. The market's outcome is dependent on which of these two distinct events occurs first.