Will anyone lose at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
64
1.2kṀ130k
resolved Apr 30
Resolved
YES

I shamelessly take inspiration from this market by @IsaacKing

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-anyone-profit-by-at-least-m100-56baa429a7a9

This is not the exact opposite, as both can resolve YES together (even with a single market) and also not identical.

I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "lose" by M$1,000,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.

Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.

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Resolves Yes

Why this is not 100% after Isaac lose 5 million is difficult for me to understand currently

@Messi Manifold's trader's behaviour is difficult for me to understand

predictedYES

@Messi MvW is at 11%, this one at 90%

@Zardoru manifold took out 2.5 million out of his account. That means he's lost that amount. His 5 million position can't give him 5 million profit anymore. his balance is negative.

predictedYES

@AlexTurner Sure, but it seems people don't want to bet up to 99% odd before WvM actual resolution.

predictedYES

@Zardoru If it resolves N/A he won't have lost any mana on it.

predictedYES

@Messi If we have any mana to bet, it's being split on 100 markets equivalent just like this one to "will WvM resolve NO?", and there's not enough money in the system to bet them all down.

The stakes are definitely there:

I believe this resolves YES if isaac loses WvM

@Shelvacu Nah, I only have ~M$700k invested so far.

@Shelvacu Now should be the case. But it's less likely that WvM resolves NO.

Well, I have a problem as there is only "Top traders" and no "Top losers"on a market. So resolution will not be straightforward. I expect players will be kind enough to tell me how much they have lost.

@Zardoru You can see it under the "positions" tab. Change the "sort by" field from "positions" to "profit".

You can also see it under the "portfolio" tab of their profile.

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