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• U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter of 2023, better than expected

• U.S. gdp growth rate for 2022 was 2.06%, a 3.88% decline from 2021.

• U.S. gdp growth rate for 2021 was 5.95%, a 8.71% increase from 2020.

• U.S. gdp growth rate for 2020 was -2.77%, a 5.06% decline from 2019.

• U.S. gdp growth rate for 2019 was 2.29%, a 0.65% decline from 2018.

• After seeing the past data, we can see the pattern of GDP and it a bit drop in 2022,

• so I bet that it will return back at 2023.
  
  https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/10/26/u-s-gdp-grew-at-a-4-point-9-percent-annual-pace-in-the-third-quarter-better-than-expected.html

@ZachariahSchwab Data is out, resolves Yes.

With the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate now at 4.9%, there is a good chance that US GDP growth will surpass 3.5% in Q3 2023. The projection is predicated on information obtainable as of October 24, 2023.

A number of indicators point to strong US GDP growth in Q3 2023:

Consumer expenditure has held steady despite high inflation.

Recent months have seen an increase in business investments.

It is projected that net exports would favourably impact GDP growth in Q3.

While there are certain concerns, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the possibility of a short-term recession, the view for Q3 2023 GDP growth is generally positive.

@AltamashShaikh is this from ChatGPT?

The posts provided cover a range of economic factors. GDPNow offers real GDP growth estimates, with a 5.4 percent forecast for Q3 2023. Home prices have been resilient, but home sales forecasts have been slightly reduced due to rising mortgage rates. Concerns about rapidly increasing long-term interest rates and their potential impact on the economy are noted, with a focus on the "term premium." Employment reports in September showed a strong rise, which contributes to an optimistic Q3 GDP forecast.

Sources:
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast/data-revisions-paint-more-optimistic-economic-picture-while-long-term-interest-rates-rise#:~:text=The%20Q3%20number%20was%20already,3.5%20to%204.9%20percent%20annualized.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%205.4%20percent%20%2D%2D,from%20October%2017%20after%20rounding.

Data Revisions Paint More Optimistic Economic Picture, While Long-Term Interest Rates Rise | Fannie Mae

Our baseline economic outlook was revised upward largely on the strength of incoming third quarter indicators and significant data revisions to historical series.

@SurajUdasi is this from ChatGPT?

@EvanDaniel to rephrase my findings, yes

It looks like the GDPnow estimate has rarely been close to the final result for a quarter from this graph. Am I missing something?

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/04/diverging-forecasts/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

@SoniaAlbrecht although it does better if you look at advanced estimates rather than final estimates.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13941/us-real-gdp-growth-quarterly/

@SoniaAlbrecht but worse if you consider its pattern at this stage of the

quarter. https://twitter.com/steveliesman/status/1691784061574959300

@SoniaAlbrecht

Yeah I believe it’s usually around 2% too high with a pretty big standard deviation. I think Q2 21 was predicting 6% and it came out 2%. However, Q2 23 growth surpassed the gdp now. Basically: it’s a pretty unreliable tool but it is still moderately useful for a question like this.

the Atlanta fed GDP now estimate is now 5.0%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow