Tornado count during April 2026

Question

Each question will be resolved based on this Wikipedia article (within reason)

(Market will resolve based on Wikipedia because NCEI confirmation can take 12 plus months)

Background Information:

The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports that the average number of tornadoes in April is 182. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tornadoes

Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market counts all tornadoes in the USA, including EFU, EF0, EF1, EF2, EF3, EF4, and EF5 tornadoes.

Related Markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Zacd/number-of-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-ap)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Zacd/will-a-tornado-outbreak-occur-on-ei)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Above 300 is most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of May 13, 2026).

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