Will a tornado outbreak occur on either April 1, 2 ,3 or 4 in the USA?

Question

This market will resolves YES if a tornado outbreak occurs on either April 1, 2 ,3 or 4.

To qualify as a tornado outbreak, there must be 6 or more tornadoes confirmed in any of the given days.

This market will resolve based on SPC Filtered Storm Reports

Related Markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Zacd/tornado-count-during-march-2026)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (3 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).