Number of tornadoes in the U.S. in April 2026 exceeds average?

Question

This market predicts whether the total number of tornadoes in the United States during April 2026 will exceed 182, the average for April based on historical data. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports that the average number of tornadoes in April is 182.

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve to 'YES' if more than 182 tornadoes can be confirmed for April 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'NO'.  The market will be resolved based on this Wikipedia article (within reason)

(Market will resolve based on Wikipedia because NCEI confirmation can take 12 plus months)

Related Markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Zacd/will-a-tornado-outbreak-occur-on-ei)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (3 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).