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MANIFOLD
Will this market close at 96.5% or more?
21
Ṁ430Ṁ5.2k
resolved Feb 4
Resolved
NO

This means that the UI would show 97% or greater.

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predictedNO

Lol @XComhghall creating limit order for Ṁ8,600 just to be sure, niiice

predictedNO

@firstuserhere I think the amount of YES needed at that point to flip the result would be quite improbable for any user to have

predictedNO

@firstuserhere Over 200,000.

predictedNO

@XComhghall oh okay

predictedNO

@firstuserhere How can I make a market to take the whales' mana?

predictedNO

@ZZZZZZ by making the whales bet on it - be the house, the house always wins. And by making the whales pit against each other, like that legendary market: https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/this-market-resolves-yes-unless-tra-d8a8536ea76a

predictedNO

@firstuserhere As the market maker, if there is huge trading on your market, you're getting Mana

predictedNO

@firstuserhere how do you get mana as the market maker?

predictedNO

@ZZZZZZ you get 10Mana for each new trader, which there will be a lot of when popular users are betting large sums/doing whale things on your market.

predictedNO

Fion's M1000 limit order alone required M24,000 to break through. So definitely good choice on my part. And I placed the limit order to take the whales' mana who would bet M25,000+ YES.

Ah, that was a regrettable market. I still mourn our perpetual loss of Mira and perhaps Homer too.

Any whales wanna jump in and earn a huge profit?

predictedNO

@firstuserhere Be the change you want to see.

@XComhghall yeah but i ain't got enough mana to pull it off

predictedNO

@XComhghall certainly does though.

@XComhghall 3600 needed rn. Around 2500 needed if you exit position iirc. Would be wonderful to see a market flip rn. Would satisfy that market about whether there will be a drastic swing in the last mins of a market

predictedNO

@ZZZZZZ if they exit and make an opposite trade, damn

predictedNO

@firstuserhere which market?

predictedNO

3120 needed lol good luck

predictedNO

@XComhghall, please, make our dreams come true.

predictedNO

@firstuserhere I guess the payoff for being a whale on this market would be low and it comes with a high risk.

predictedNO

@firstuserhere so, I can see why @XComhghall wouldn't be interested.

@ZZZZZZ Why a high risk if market will be closed in a minute or two?

predictedNO

@firstuserhere because you never know what other whales are on here. I wouldn't do it even with 8000 mana.

predictedNO

@ZZZZZZ Unsystematic risk is diversifiable and not rewarded.

@XComhghall ah well

@XComhghall I am risk neutral myself but I still wouldn't take that bet.

@ZZZZZZ Not all risks are proportional to their rewards. And M8500 is not at all a large sum.