After 3 years on Manifold as an anonymous account, I've decided to reveal my identity to get better predictions on a major life decision.
I'm a 20-year-old CS student at the University of Toronto Mississauga with ~0.9 years left. I have until February 9, 2026 to decide whether to drop out.
Grades: https://pastebin.com/spuDRzft
Resolves YES if I withdraw from UTM by February 9, 2026 (last day to drop Winter 2026 courses with a 50% fee refund). Resolves NO otherwise.
See companion markets:
https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/what-will-my-net-income-be-in-2030
https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/what-will-my-net-income-be-in-2030-ZZUyuEyQ9S
Feel free to ask questions in the comments.
Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Taking a leave of absence (dropping all classes) counts as dropping out for this market's resolution, since UTM allows students to return anytime by filling out a simple form.
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@SavioMak I've been thinking of dropping out seriously since December since the bug bounty hunting using AI was going well (see https://hackerone.com/michaelcheers). I thought there was no point in continuing in uni since even doing the bug bounty hunting with AI in a less efficient way was so lucrative but at the last minute around Jan 5 I considered the argument that the opportunity cost of continuing in university is low since with AI it's mostly about being there to manage when it gets into loops and stuff, though later I was able to automate it quite a bit more so it ended up being mostly about triage which was also very challenging even though the AI was already triaging most stuff. Anyway, I've been working on another project for the same guy who's the CEO of Moving Papa (mentioned on https://michaelcheers.com) he wants to build a SaaS business which is like a CRM and also helps businesses manage operations and track expenses and stuff like that. He is convinced I should drop out given he was super successful not doing uni. He has a contact with the company that runs ads for his company and he said he recommended me to him so I can do website development working for that marketing agency's clients. Also, if I do drop out, he wants me to do website development for customers of his SaaS product. In general, the reasons for dropping out are:
I have some income at least with the digital stamp (mentioned on michaelcheers.com, dedicated website at lynxseal.com)
I think the Moving Papa guy will have plenty of work for me if I want it so I'm not worried about running out of money. I have about $10k in savings but paying back my grandparents (who are paying my uni) for the half of the tuition (total per term is ~$10k so I lose $5k) they would've lost this term will cut into that.
It seems like from everything I'm hearing the job market for software developers is really bad at the amount and is probably only getting worse. My parents seem to think I'm exempt somehow from this trend since I have more skills and experience than many do but I'm not sure if this is just motivated reasoning or actually makes sense. Ergo the opportunity cost is low.
Despite the theoretical logic of how university doesn't take that much time so the opportunity cost is low, in practice, I find that it makes it very hard to focus on the bug bounties for example. Especially since I'm also working a ton on that SaaS project.
I just found it hard to objectively weigh all the arguments here since it all seems like such a tangled mess with AI throwing a wrench into everything and the Moving Papa CEO being convinced that dropping out makes tons of sense and my parents and grandparents being convinced it's the worst thing I could do.
@ZZZZZZ Is taking a "Leave of Absence" considered dropping out for this market? https://www.utsc.utoronto.ca/registrar/leave-absence
@SavioMak Yes the option I was considering is just dropping all my classes. UTM doesn't really have a policy vis a vis what's dropping out versus what's a leave of absence so you can come back anytime just by filling out a simple form.