Will GPT-4 be released on the first or last day of a month (in Pacific Time)?
35
331
690
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
NO

Resolves N/A if GPT-4 is not released this year.

Released refers to that it can be accessed by anyone through an API or other means, not release to employees of OpenAI or a private beta.

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bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

This can resolve NO.

sold Ṁ260 of YES

>:(

How does this resolve if it turns out Bing's chatbot is GPT-4?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing If GPT-4 has not been previously released, it would resolve based on the day when Bing stops having a waitlist, assuming Bing Chat is GPT-4. If it is later announced to be GPT-4, I would resolve it retroactively based on that.

predicted NO

I'm very confused by this market. @quadrilateral, what do you know that I don't?

predicted YES

@Meg The beginning or end of a month is often a nice round number to release things on.

predicted NO

Are they >10x nicer than other days of the month?

predicted YES

@Meg Yes

predicted YES

@Meg It will be probably more of a formality since there probably already be a waitlist so the end or beginning of the month makes sense to make it public.