Will GPT-4 be released on the first or last day of a month (in Pacific Time)? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

GPT-4 speculation

Will GPT-4 be released on the first or last day of a month (in Pacific Time)?

33%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves N/A if GPT-4 is not released this year.

Released refers to that it can be accessed by anyone through an API or other means, not release to employees of OpenAI or a private beta.

YES shares

1,547

171

AccelerationBot

167

NO shares

Mordecai Weynberg

1,001

191

109

85

71

65

52

41

Mackenzie Johnson

35

26

18

16

15

12

12

11

11

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 33% (cancelled)

quadrilateral bought Ṁ50 YES from 30% to 34%

quadrilateral bought Ṁ41 YES from 22% to 30%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ30 NO from 24% to 22%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ20 NO from 25% to 24%

Meg Tong bought Ṁ7 NO from 26% to 25%

Meg Tong bought Ṁ40 NO from 29% to 26%

quadrilateral bought Ṁ50 YES from 19% to 29%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ100 NO at 19% (cancelled)

quadrilateral bought Ṁ29 YES from 15% to 20%

Mackenzie Johnson bought Ṁ10 NO from 16% to 15%

Mackenzie Johnson bought Ṁ10 NO at 16%

Mackenzie Johnson bought Ṁ10 NO at 16%

Mordecai Weynberg bought Ṁ75 NO from 19% to 16%

Trevor Chow sold Ṁ52 NO from 17% to 19%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 17% (cancelled)

Meg Tong bought Ṁ25 NO from 17% to 16%

Meg Tong bought Ṁ80 NO from 20% to 17%

Andrew G bought Ṁ10 NO at 20%

David Sartor bought Ṁ10 NO from 21% to 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ100 NO at 21% (cancelled)

Derik K bought Ṁ50 NO from 26% to 22%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26%

dp bought Ṁ50 NO from 33% to 27%

Kushal Thaman sold Ṁ26 NO at 33%

Trevor Chow filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 36% (cancelled)

Kushal Thaman filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 33%

Mordecai Weynberg bought Ṁ1 NO at 45%

quadrilateral bought Ṁ27 YES from 35% to 45%

zzq bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 35%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 38%

quadrilateral bought Ṁ50 YES from 18% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 NO at 18% (cancelled)

quadrilateral bought Ṁ25 YES from 10% to 19%

Mordecai Weynberg bought Ṁ200 NO from 25% to 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 25% (cancelled)

Mordecai Weynberg bought Ṁ100 NO from 39% to 21%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ100 NO at 39% (cancelled)

Conflux bought Ṁ10 NO from 43% to 40%

ZZZ ZZZ bought Ṁ2 NO from 44% to 43%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 44% (cancelled)

Jack Galler bought Ṁ10 NO from 47% to 43%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 47% (cancelled)

quadrilateral bought Ṁ50 YES from 15% to 49%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 NO at 15% (cancelled)

quadrilateral bought Ṁ25 YES from 6% to 17%

ZZZ ZZZ bought Ṁ8 YES from 4% to 6%

Mordecai Weynberg bought Ṁ200 NO from 7% to 4%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 7% (cancelled)