MANIFOLD
Who will win the Ivory Coast 2025 presidential election?
9
Ṁ10kṀ45k
resolved Oct 27
100%97%
Alassane Outtara
0.5%
Pascal Affi N'Guessan
0.4%
Gnangbo Kacou
0.5%
Simone Gbagbo
0.4%
Jean-Louis Billon
0.4%
Tidjane Thiam
0.3%
Charles Blé Goudé
0.4%
Other

If the election is cancelled or winner unknown by Dec 31, 2025 - the market will resolve as Other. If a person who isn't listed wins, it will resolve as Other.

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ChatGPT says they have a ban on polls! This is the only country that I know of with a ban on polling that last the entire campaign. Some latin american countries ban polls for say the last week.

Normally I wouldn't call it based on provisional results, but it's pretty clear that short of a popular uprising - ADO wins hands down.

bought Ṁ1,350 YES

I still have no idea, but maybe Outtara just runs away with it?

@MaybeNotDepends Really doubtful anyone else wins the race when the electoral body is beholden to him only chance is if a military junta either annuls the results and hold another one under better conditions/just gives it to the opposition leader with the most support

@overflow Nice. Where are you getting your news? Any good Ivory Coast newspapers? Jeune Afrique?

I suppose there is a small chance of a popular uprising that overturns a stolen election. Or a coup. Or a small chance that Outtara dies (some famous Ivory Coast politician who was going to be candidate died in the last year or so at a younger age).

@MaybeNotDepends The usual suspects AP, Reuters, radio France international etc. I don't know any French so I'm just as knowledgeable as you on any good local/regional sources.

@overflow France24 can be good too.

You can also do very well with various translation browser extensions/add-ons.

@MaybeNotDepends national subreddits and small to medium news channels serve me well for the anglophone countries and I do listen to any episodes for non-anglophone countries on all the podcasts dedicated to Africa.

I have no idea, and welcome news articles about this race!

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