Will Hamas still rule Gaza on June 1st 2024?
23
226
450
Jun 1
34%
chance

Background

Hamas launched a suprise attack on Israel on the morning of October 7th 2023. It is considered unprecedented in the Israel-Gaza conflict, leading to many civilians killed and kidnapped on the Israeli side.

There are calls in Israel from right-wing political leaders to topple the rule of Hamas in Gaza in retaliation. While these calls are often heard around escalations in the conflict, the severity of the attack might lend credence to them this time.

Resolution criteria and edge cases

  • Hamas must be the ruling party in Gaza, operate freely to supply public services and collect taxes.

  • A level of control as prior to October 7th 2023 will be sufficient for YES, but more limited control would also be considered.

  • If Israel reoccupies up to 50% of territory of Gaza, and Hamas controls the rest, will resolve as YES. If Israel reoccupies >= 50% of territory, will resolve as NO.

  • Continuous control not neccesary: if Hamas is not ruling Gaza for a significant amount of time, but still regains control by June 1st and it seems it would remain in power, would resolve YES. I might wait a week after June 1st to make sure they actually regained control and its not a fluke.

  • If Hamas has military control of Gaza but another party leads international negotiations / represents Gaza in the world, will resolve N/A.

  • No need for direct causal influence of Israel: If Hamas no longer rules Gaza, but it's not due to direct Israeli actions, will resolve YES.

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I made a related market relying on Wikipedia for resolution.

@marketwise Nice. I guess I will rely on wikipedia as well, I haven't made it clear in the description. I'm still unsure how fast they react and how reliable it is for this kinds of things, so I'm reserving judgement.