I asked GPT: "What proportion of returning Israeli gold medalists have gotten a gold medal on the IMO? Say, among those who competed in some year starting with a 2."

Apparently it's only 1/7. Oran Lang yes, Alexey Entin no, Omri Solan no, Shahar Friedman no, Yair Shoham no, Itamar Nir no, Nadav Dan Tamari no.

@nathanwei budnik is built different

@EladEvenShani Yeah I would go way over 1/7. Also something changed recently. All 3 of Israel's top 10 finishes at the IMO ever are in the last 5 years. The RMM silver is a strong signal, that's probably equivalent to an IMO gold.

@nathanwei I should also add that Itamar Nir got all 3 problems on day 1 of IMO 2024 which is impressive but just got screwed over by P5 and missed gold by a point. So he was probably very strong. Seems that Israel is doing better nowadays. Curious why. Better training? The fact that the number of 18-year old Israelis grows due to the population pyramid being shaped the right way, while for other developed countries it's shrinking? I can see Israel becoming VERY STRONG at IMO within a couple decades after Haredi integration is complete.

@nathanwei thats a good question, I think its two things - there is a "young national team" in our country thats pretty new, that you get into in the 8th grade and it starts training you twords the older national team. Most of us came from there. It gives us some extra years of training and gets more people early on (they know about the team and the young national team has more people) the second is better training. And probably better trainers since the trainers are the students from previous years.

@EladEvenShani I know that one "problem" that Israel used to have and maybe still has is that many smart people just go to university. Most people live close to a good university since it's a small country. In any case, there is also the "Open University" so many people just get a degree from that. So then a nontrivial percentage of the brightest young students stop being IMO eligible. I don't know if this changed.

@nathanwei Ill tell you a secret, they go to universety and to IMO as well. Im not sure thats illegal.

If you experience a sudden demise, will the market still be resolved?

@EladEvenShani if someone reports my sudden demise and I don't answer back within a month the market will be resolved by admins

@YotamBudnik ok Im on it