Got bronze on IMO 2024, gold in 2025, silver in rmm 2025 and not sent to rmm 2026 due to new team selection guidelines Update 13/5: got into IMO team! Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the creator passes away, the market will be resolved by Manifold admins if the creator does not respond within one month of a reported demise.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Gold, followed by Don't participate (not sent, sudden demise, etc.) and Silver are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of May 13, 2026).

What will I get at IMO 2026?

MANIFOLD

What will I get at IMO 2026?

Ṁ300Ṁ467

Jul 11

72%

Gold

Silver

Bronze

Nothing

11%

Don't participate (not sent, sudden demise, etc.)

Got bronze on IMO 2024, gold in 2025, silver in rmm 2025 and not sent to rmm 2026 due to new team selection guidelines

Update 13/5: got into IMO team!

Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the creator passes away, the market will be resolved by Manifold admins if the creator does not respond within one month of a reported demise.

Market context

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1,000

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I asked GPT: "What proportion of returning Israeli gold medalists have gotten a gold medal on the IMO? Say, among those who competed in some year starting with a 2."

Apparently it's only 1/7. Oran Lang yes, Alexey Entin no, Omri Solan no, Shahar Friedman no, Yair Shoham no, Itamar Nir no, Nadav Dan Tamari no.