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MANIFOLD
What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)
81
Ṁ3.5kṀ10k
Jul 21
88%
Someone gets 42
80%
China 6 golds
79%
USA second place
78%
A female wins gold medal
77%
Alexander Wang top 10 (tied counts)
77%
There exist a tie for first place
73%
A problem mentions anything related to China
63%
Problem 3 or 6 is combinatorics
62%
Problem 2 or 5 is number theory
60%
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
58%
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
56%
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
53%
Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics
52%
Problem 2 or 5 is geometry
50%
a problem required to be done by casework (e.g. 2025 IMO P4 counts)
48%
a problem involves a game between exactly two players
44%
A country scores 126 on a day
41%
The property that 1013 is prime can be utilized to solve at least one of the 6 problems
41%
Alexander Wang first on team USA (tied counts)
40%
Past IMO gold medalist gets bronze or lower

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

  • Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cutoff markets have been resolved N/A, as the creator has decided not to keep them open before day 2 is over to avoid stressing contestants.

Market context
IMO
Competition Math
imo 2026
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@Tetrahydrofuran good answer, I like it :)

bought Ṁ1 YES

Disclaimer: this bet was made by IDN4 2026

This bet does not express my views regarding rooi :)

New market :)

It seems to be always true

@Wintersfan insider tradeable market

@Incompleteusern oops

I mean every Alexander Wang market is, so I don't see why not

@Wintersfan everyone at imo can inside trade at this market

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Wintersfan wait was it true last year?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@jatloe wait I may have been thinking of smth else, if this was true last year im betting this up lol

@Incompleteusern I agree, but this has always been true for IMO markets so I don't see why not

bought Ṁ10 YES

@jatloe I checked until 2019 it's always true? I just looked up the mirzakhani award winners each year and look them up

@Wintersfan Team first place or individual first place?

@jonathan Individual, sorry I was not clear.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Wintersfan A 90% china 6 golds implies the average chinese has ~98.3% chance of getting gold. China didn't win 6 golds in 2024, 2020, and 2012-2018.

@JONATHANHAZEL Does n-variable inequality count?

@DottedCalculator if n didnt declared like "n>5", then no (sorry for bad english)

@Wintersfan For clarification, I will use the definition from this market

I have decided to N/A cutoff markets, because having these before day 2 is over may stress the contestants.

I might open a separate cutoff market but only after IMO day 2 is over.

@Wintersfan Revived this market as a throwback for the 2025 market :)

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Wintersfan go go go Dotted!

@Wintersfan YAY! GO DOTTED!

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 20% order

@Wintersfan 1000 mana order up at 20% NO

bought Ṁ10 YES

@DottedCalculator thanks for the free mana

@jatloe Thanks for the free mana!

@Wintersfan Is this worth it for 90 mana?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@DottedCalculator Very funny.

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