What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.
In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025
Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cutoff markets have been resolved N/A, as the creator has decided not to keep them open before day 2 is over to avoid stressing contestants.
Update 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Two similar questions about the number 67 appearing in IMO problems have been clarified:
"At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem": Resolves YES if the problem statement refers to 67, "six seven", or the act of "six seven" (broader interpretation)
"There are 67 in the problem statement": Resolves YES only if the number 67 (sixty-seven) appears explicitly in the problem statement itself (stricter interpretation)
Update 2026-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "There exist a tie for first place" refers to a tie among individual students, not teams.
Update 2026-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the previously resolved answer "a problem required to be done by casework" may be unresolving (pending Manifold mod assistance), as the creator now agrees the example in question should not count as casework.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,916 | |
| 2 | Ṁ700 | |
| 3 | Ṁ264 | |
| 4 | Ṁ174 | |
| 5 | Ṁ133 |
People are also trading
Hello, I found someone named Emanuel Mazare of Romania.
he got 777 770 Gold at IMO 2025, then 700 771 Bronze at IMO 2026. Should resolve YES then.
Any objections?
@jatloe Yes I just resolved it about a minute ago. How about jat fakesolve market? Does it resolve NO?
edit: wait nvm i didnt read
From my statistics using P3 or P6 hidden scores, I forecast 16/23/30
This is due to 15 and 22 being very common scores
>= 15 is like 55% of people
>= 22 is like 30% of people
so it's difficult to be B 15 or S 22.
For gold not sure. Because the top players, p3 or p6 hidden could be a (big) positive score.
@RaymondChristopherTanto All markets at 99% can be resolved yes. All markets at 1% with the exception of the medal markets can be resolved no.
@jatloe Sorry I just resolved it randomly since resolution criteria of "casework" is quite unclear, p4 casework theta | 180 or not xD