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MANIFOLD
What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)
101
แน€4.2kแน€14k
Jul 21
92%
Someone gets 42
89%
A female wins gold medal
85%
There exist a tie for first place
83%
China 6 golds
76%
A problem mentions anything related to China
72%
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
70%
USA second place
70%
Problem 2 or 5 is number theory
68%
Problem 3 or 6 is combinatorics
67%
Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics
60%
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
59%
a problem required to be done by casework (e.g. 2025 IMO P4 counts)
59%
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
57%
USA IMO Team Member gets a 67 in their distrib string (no wrap around)
57%
Problem 3 or 6 is geometry
57%
Alexander Wang top 10 (tied counts)
55%
USA 5 Gold 1 Silver
51%
Someone on USA gets 42
51%
At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem
48%
Alexander Wang first on team USA (tied counts)

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

  • Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cutoff markets have been resolved N/A, as the creator has decided not to keep them open before day 2 is over to avoid stressing contestants.

  • Update 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Two similar questions about the number 67 appearing in IMO problems have been clarified:

    • "At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem": Resolves YES if the problem statement refers to 67, "six seven", or the act of "six seven" (broader interpretation)

    • "There are 67 in the problem statement": Resolves YES only if the number 67 (sixty-seven) appears explicitly in the problem statement itself (stricter interpretation)

Market context
IMO
Competition Math
imo 2026
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isnt markets
At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem
and
There are 67 in the problem statement
the same

Hello, me and the author have resolved it in the comments. The other author was not aware of my market before posting.

We have agreed on the following solution:

"reference of 67" is more broad, if the problem statement refers to 67, six seven, or the act of six seven, then it resolves yes

whereas "there are 67" will resolve yes if there is the number sixty seven (67) in the problem statement itself

boughtแน€67 NO

very bold wow

I don't know how this is even possible ๐Ÿ’€

@RaymondChristopherTanto sooooooooooooooooooooo

USA second place at 80%, and USA 5 gold 1 silver + USA 6 gold <= 54% seems somewhat incompatible to me (though the third one has hedging i think)

@Incompleteusern Yeah I agree that 5G 1S + 6G should be way higher

@ttaram there is already an answer "at least one reference of 67 appears on a problem"

Is your market resolution condition different?

I have discussed with the author, we have agreed on:

my market about "reference of 67" can be something like x1+x2+...+x6 > y1+y2+...+y7, fraction 6/7, board size 6ร—7 will resolve YES.

but the market on "there are 67", it has to involve the number sixty seven to resolve YES.

@Tetrahydrofuran good answer, I like it :)

bought แน€1 YES

Disclaimer: this bet was made by IDN4 2026

This bet does not express my views regarding rooi :)

New market :)

It seems to be always true

@Wintersfan insider tradeable market

@Incompleteusern oops

I mean every Alexander Wang market is, so I don't see why not

@Wintersfan everyone at imo can inside trade at this market

bought แน€10 NO

@Wintersfan wait was it true last year?

bought แน€50 YES

@jatloe wait I may have been thinking of smth else, if this was true last year im betting this up lol

@Incompleteusern I agree, but this has always been true for IMO markets so I don't see why not

bought แน€10 YES

@jatloe I checked until 2019 it's always true? I just looked up the mirzakhani award winners each year and look them up

@Wintersfan Team first place or individual first place?

@jonathan Individual, sorry I was not clear.

bought แน€10 NO

@Wintersfan A 90% china 6 golds implies the average chinese has ~98.3% chance of getting gold. China didn't win 6 golds in 2024, 2020, and 2012-2018.

@JONATHANHAZEL Does n-variable inequality count?

@DottedCalculator if n didnt declared like "n>5", then no (sorry for bad english)

@Wintersfan For clarification, I will use the definition from this market

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