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What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)
44
Ṁ2.5kṀ3.6k
Jul 21
91%
Someone gets 42
81%
China 6 golds
75%
USA second place
64%
Problem 3 or 6 is combinatorics
57%
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
53%
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
51%
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
50%
Alexander Wang first on team USA (tied counts)
50%
Alexander Wang top 10 (tied counts)
50%
Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics
49%
Problem 2 or 5 is geometry
45%
Problem 2 or 5 is algebra
45%
Past IMO gold medalist gets bronze or lower
44%
Problem 2 or 5 is number theory
39%
Problem 1 or 4 has a strictly less than 60% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)
37%
Problem 1,2,4, or 5 has a strictly less than 25% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)
35%
A country scores 126 on a day
27%
USA 6 golds
25%
At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem
25%
rooi (@Incompleteusern) fakesolves an IMO problem at the IMO

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

  • Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cutoff markets have been resolved N/A, as the creator has decided not to keep them open before day 2 is over to avoid stressing contestants.

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imo 2026
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I have decided to N/A cutoff markets, because having these before day 2 is over may stress the contestants.

I might open a separate cutoff market but only after IMO day 2 is over.

@Wintersfan Revived this market as a throwback for the 2025 market :)

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Wintersfan go go go Dotted!

@Wintersfan YAY! GO DOTTED!

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 20% order

@Wintersfan 1000 mana order up at 20% NO

@Wintersfan Is this worth it for 90 mana?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@DottedCalculator Very funny.

I need your guys' opinion: should I include unofficial russia scores for the country rank bets?

@Wintersfan I think Russia is official this year?

@DottedCalculator Oh wow, I am not aware of that, we will see later

@RaymondChristopherTanto Source is https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jul/19/can-a-common-denominator-unite-warring-contestant-nations-at-the-international-mathematics-olympiad-ntwnfb

bought Ṁ20 NO

@E142 vacuously false

bought Ṁ20 YES

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 40% order

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Incompleteusern STOP!

@RaymondChristopherTanto

These are the stats I compiled from 2005-2025, a problem 1/2/4/5 that has <25% solve rate used to be common but is very rare nowadays.

(I hope I compiled the stats correctly lol, I did it manually. Again, a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

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