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MANIFOLD
What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)
72
แน€3kแน€8.5k
Jul 21
91%
Someone gets 42
85%
China 6 golds
78%
USA second place
76%
There exist a tie for first place
72%
A problem mentions anything related to China
67%
Alexander Wang top 10 (tied counts)
63%
Problem 3 or 6 is combinatorics
59%
Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics
58%
At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold
57%
Past IMO gold medalist gets bronze or lower
56%
At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze
54%
At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver
50%
Problem 2 or 5 is algebra
48%
Problem 1,2,4, or 5 has a < 25% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)
47%
Problem 2 or 5 is geometry
46%
The property that 1013 is prime can be utilized to solve at least one of the 6 problems
45%
Problem 2 or 5 is number theory
42%
Alexander Wang first on team USA (tied counts)
35%
A country scores 126 on a day
35%
At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

  • Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cutoff markets have been resolved N/A, as the creator has decided not to keep them open before day 2 is over to avoid stressing contestants.

Market context
Competition Math
IMO
imo 2026
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@Wintersfan Team first place or individual first place?

@jonathan Individual, sorry I was not clear.

bought แน€10 NO

@Wintersfan A 90% china 6 golds implies the average chinese has ~98.3% chance of getting gold. China didn't win 6 golds in 2024, 2020, and 2012-2018.

@JONATHANHAZEL Does n-variable inequality count?

@DottedCalculator if n didnt declared like "n>5", then no (sorry for bad english)

@Wintersfan For clarification, I will use the definition from this market

I have decided to N/A cutoff markets, because having these before day 2 is over may stress the contestants.

I might open a separate cutoff market but only after IMO day 2 is over.

@Wintersfan Revived this market as a throwback for the 2025 market :)

bought แน€10 YES

@Wintersfan go go go Dotted!

@Wintersfan YAY! GO DOTTED!

opened a แน€1,000 NO at 20% order

@Wintersfan 1000 mana order up at 20% NO

bought แน€10 YES

@DottedCalculator thanks for the free mana

@jatloe Thanks for the free mana!

@Wintersfan Is this worth it for 90 mana?

bought แน€5 YES

@DottedCalculator Very funny.

I need your guys' opinion: should I include unofficial russia scores for the country rank bets?

@Wintersfan I think Russia is official this year?

@DottedCalculator Oh wow, I am not aware of that, we will see later

@RaymondChristopherTanto Source is https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jul/19/can-a-common-denominator-unite-warring-contestant-nations-at-the-international-mathematics-olympiad-ntwnfb

bought แน€20 NO

@E142 vacuously false

bought แน€20 YES

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

opened a แน€1,000 NO at 40% order

@Incompleteusern FREE MANA!

bought แน€10 NO

@Incompleteusern STOP!

@RaymondChristopherTanto

These are the stats I compiled from 2005-2025, a problem 1/2/4/5 that has <25% solve rate used to be common but is very rare nowadays.

(I hope I compiled the stats correctly lol, I did it manually. Again, a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

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