What will happen at IMO 2026? (add your questions!!)

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.6kṀ1k

Jul 20

82%

Someone gets 42

78%

China 6 golds

57%

At least 1/12 of all contestants receive at least gold

55%

Bronze cutoff is at least 16

52%

At least 1/4 of all contestants receive at least silver

52%

Silver cutoff is at least 24

48%

Problem 2 or 5 is geometry

45%

At least 1/2 of all contestants receive at least bronze

45%

Gold cutoff is at least 30

45%

Problem 2 or 5 is number theory

45%

Problem 2 or 5 is combinatorics

43%

Problem 1 or 4 has a strictly less than 60% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

43%

Problem 2 or 5 is algebra

33%

USA 6 golds

32%

Problem 1,2,4, or 5 has a strictly less than 25% solve rate (a solve is defined as at least 5 points)

32%

At least one reference of 67 appears on a problem

What will happen at the 67th IMO 2026 Shanghai, China? Each answer will resolve independently of each other. Feel free to add your own questions. Other questions may include country ranks, country medals, specific individual performances, cutoffs, solve rate, AI performance, etc.

In the unforeseen circumstance that IMO 2026 does not take place, everything will resolve N/A

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/what-will-happen-at-imo-2025

Market context

Competition Math

IMO

imo 2026

Get

1,000

to start trading!

1 Comment

12 Holders

74 Trades