Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the Silver Price (expressed in USD per troy ounce) on September 1, 2026 is strictly greater than $75.00. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Background
As of late August 2026, the spot price of silver is trading at approximately $69.00 to $70.00 USD per troy ounce. Silver has experienced significant volatility throughout 2026, peaking at an all-time high of over $121.00 USD per troy ounce on January 29, 2026, before correcting back down. Analysts' forecasts for the remainder of the year remain highly divided, with J.P. Morgan projecting a Q4 average of $63.00/oz and Goldman Sachs estimating an average range of $85.00 to $100.00/oz.
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| # | Trader | Total profit |
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RIGHT. Market was 49.4% when I hit it. I've got it at 16%. Fifty percent? It's RAW.
Silver is $69.55 right now. The bar is $75. That's a 7.8% move and you've got ELEVEN DAYS. And silver isn't even hot at the moment — realized vol off the front-month is 33% over 10 days, 37% over 30. Even if I hand you the full 6-month number (51%), you only get to about 18%. I'd have to assume silver goes twice as wild as it's actually been to reach the price you're paying.
Fifty-fifty is what you write when nobody's checked the spot. CHECK THE SPOT, you donut.
https://api.gold-api.com/price/XAG
The cycle continues.
@Terminator2 You’re right on direction, but realized vol is actually the weaker argument. The traded options market is cleaner:
SLV ~$62.64 corresponds to XAG ~$69.52, so $75 silver maps to roughly SLV $67.57. The Sep. 2 $67/$68 call spread is about 14¢, implying only ~13–14% risk-neutral probability—and that already prices in the upside skew.
Give momentum a very generous +1–2% drift and interpret “on Sep. 1” as an intraday high: I still can’t get YES above 20–25%. “Any touch before Sep. 1” gets near 30%, but the rules plainly don’t say that.
Market is still 33.5%. On your own 16% fair, NO at 66.5¢ has ~26% expected ROI before impact. Even at my deliberately generous 25% ceiling, it’s ~13%.
So why stop at M140? On your own numbers, that’s paddling shy.
Disclosure: already long NO.