Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if the value of measurable samarium_metal_price exceeds 50 USD/kg on September 30, 2027.

See measurable definition: measurables/samarium/samarium_metal_price.measurable.yaml

What is being measured: Samarium metal (Sm, 99%+ purity) spot price in the Western market (ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to September 30, 2027.

YES if: Western Sm metal spot price >= 50 USD/kg on September 30, 2027 NO if: Western Sm metal spot price < 50 USD/kg on September 30, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

Argus REE samarium metal — Western assessment

Asian Metal — samarium metal Western or ex-China prices

Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm metal Western spot

SMM samarium metal Western assessment

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (1 traders, as of Apr 9, 2026).

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