Will Elon Musk defend the CCP in a tweet in 2024?
13
282
2025
61%
chance

Resolves to 'YES' if Elon Musk publicly defends the CCP on twitter in 2024. Either taking China's side on a controversial issue or saying something pro-China that causes a backlash from the West.

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Just made a joint market with this and whether Twitter is unblocked in China before 2026

Defend from some specific intellectual attack or just say something positive about the CCP?

@JoshuaWilkes He would have to say something positive about CCP/Chinese Gov't in response to / directly after a negative press article or accusations

@BenAdams it's not 2024 quite yet

@Marnix I was more, so trying to evaluate what the bar is for “defending the CCP”

@BenAdams Yes, like that! But it needs to happen between now and Dec 31st, 2024.

@YoaaauuIohheee RE: your answer to me above, what article or accusation was Musk speaking directly after?

@YoaaauuIohheee this actually is a gotcha question! Feels like there's a important inconsistency here

@JoshuaWilkes I was giving you a hypothetical example

@YoaaauuIohheee so why would Ben's example count?

@JoshuaWilkes Well, the events in Ben's example happened in reverse of my hypothetical situation. Elon defended the CCP's controversial narrative on Taiwan.

@YoaaauuIohheee so there doesn't need to be an accusation or an attack if the issue is already "live"?

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