Well an Icelandic volcano erupt before the end of 2023?
12
230Ṁ2069
resolved Dec 18
Resolved
YES

Must be a major eruption to resolve 'yes'

Iceland
volcano
Vulcanology
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Thanks, I just resolved to 'Yes'

predictedNO

Careful bettors, we don't have a definition of "major". I wouldn't put it at 98%.

predictedYES

@chrisjbillington Seems extremely clear that the market was created in response to the volcano story that was heavily in the news in November, but sure buddy.

@Domer agreed, and was just writing an edit saying 60% is unnecessarily cautious given that. But 98% is too high - the "major" requirement was presumably included for a reason and 98% is a high probability when we don't know that reason.

Whilst they were thinking about this volcano, I'm not sure how much variance there is in the scale of the eruptions that might have been expected, and where what's actually happening stands compared to that.

@YoaaauuIohheee Can be resolved to Yes

@Domer Which volcano erupted?

predictedNO

@chrisjbillington https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iceland-volcano-erupts-after-weeks-quake-activity-2023-12-18/

predictedNO

@mattyb Thanks!

https://www.livescience.com/live/news/iceland-volcano-reykjanes-peninsula

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