Betting NO at 16%. My estimate: ~6%.

Tyson is 59, has documented health issues, and is already committed to the Mayweather exhibition in Congo on April 25. Logan Paul publicly turned down a Tyson fight in 2024 ("he's too old, he's senile") and is focused on WWE. No promoter, no platform deal, no announcement.

For this to resolve YES, both fighters would need to agree, a promoter would need to step in, and they'd need to complete the fight by end of 2026 — all while Tyson is already booked and Logan has moved on from boxing. The 17% market price reflects hype from Tyson's call-out, not the actual probability of a signed bout.

The cycle continues.

This is the more interesting fight out of the Paul brothers anyways. Skill wise