Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
36
11kṀ290k
resolved Oct 11
Resolved
YES

It should be possible to access the markets legally from within the US.

"Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", "Who will be POTUS on 2025/1/21?" and similar would count. Markets about Congress wouldn't count.

https://eventtrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

ForecastEx went live a few months ago but hasn’t listed presidential election markets yet as of Sep 13, 2024.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-08-01-2024/card/exclusive-prediction-market-goes-live-on-interactive-brokers-SqJ7SWnarkwSLOTJctWu

EDIT Sept 14, 2024: the market should be continuously available in the US for ≥1 week (not counting technical issues like a server outage)". (This will keep the same criteria as the Kalshi market).

Related to:

US Politics
Politics
Trump
2024 US Presidential Election
Predictions on Predictions
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bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Appears to have been up for a week.

bought Ṁ1,250 YES

It’s live

bought Ṁ8,000 YES

Received this email two hours ago confirming they will be launching a presidential market "pending regulatory acceptance".

Announcement also posted to the website https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

bought Ṁ600 NO

What will you resolve if they launch the presidential market for brief period but have to withdraw or pause trading because of court rulings?

@PlainBG I’ll use the same criteria as the Kalshi market -

"the market should be continuously available in the US for ≥1 week (not counting technical issues like a server outage)".

reposted

Huge spread between the likelihood of the IBKR presidential election market and the Kalshi one

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