Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election? | Manifold

Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?

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resolved Oct 11

Resolved

YES

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It should be possible to access the markets legally from within the US.

"Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", "Who will be POTUS on 2025/1/21?" and similar would count. Markets about Congress wouldn't count.

https://eventtrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

ForecastEx went live a few months ago but hasn’t listed presidential election markets yet as of Sep 13, 2024.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-08-01-2024/card/exclusive-prediction-market-goes-live-on-interactive-brokers-SqJ7SWnarkwSLOTJctWu

EDIT Sept 14, 2024: the market should be continuously available in the US for ≥1 week (not counting technical issues like a server outage)". (This will keep the same criteria as the Kalshi market).

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Predictions on Predictions

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bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Appears to have been up for a week.

bought Ṁ1,250 YES

It’s live

bought Ṁ8,000 YES

Received this email two hours ago confirming they will be launching a presidential market "pending regulatory acceptance".

Announcement also posted to the website https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php

bought Ṁ600 NO

What will you resolve if they launch the presidential market for brief period but have to withdraw or pause trading because of court rulings?

@PlainBG I’ll use the same criteria as the Kalshi market -

"the market should be continuously available in the US for ≥1 week (not counting technical issues like a server outage)".

reposted

Huge spread between the likelihood of the IBKR presidential election market and the Kalshi one

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