What will happen by July 1st? (ADD RESPONSES)
130
2.5K
15K
Jul 7
99.6%
Destiny speaks with Jordan Peterson
99.5%
Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce (rumors count - not legal proof; for example: ANYONE on Reddit/YouTube/X says finalized counts) screenshot must be posted in comments to resolve. Rumors it won't happen count too.
98.8%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is 90% or higher
98.8%
June 5th, 2024
98.3%
humane ai pin ships
98%
rabbit r1 ships
97%
The red team wins the Superbowl
97%
This market will have at least 10 questions resolve no
81%
Elon Musk goes on any podcast
78%
Nikola Jokic will win MVP
70%
There will be a ceasefire in Gaza
57%
Trump says at least 2 of these words: eagle, beagle, regal, legal, seagull, Seagal
56%
SpaceX Starship reaches orbit
52%
Trump picks a VP candidate
46%
Tomatoes are the largest grossing fruit in terms of gross volume sold in the United Arab Emirates during passover (yes, tomatoes are a fruit!)
38%
A Frenchman wins the Tour de France 🇫🇷
37%
A country experiences hyperinflation (at least one month with a monthly inflation rate of at least 50%)
33%
A Christian, Hindu or Buddhist terrorist bombing anywhere in the world. (extremist and/or in the name of the religion)
30%
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
28%
The US Olympic team wins the most gold medals

This is a place to create questions and bet on the events happening during and before June 6 2024

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Flaco the owl is returned to the NYC Zoo

He’s deceased, he’s shuffled off this mortal coil, gone to meet his maker! He is an ex-owl!

Flaco the owl is returned to the NYC Zoo
bought Ṁ200 Flaco the owl is ret... NO

This can resolve NO, Flaco was found dead on February 23rd.

Comment hidden
Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce (rumors count - not legal proof; for example: ANYONE on Reddit/YouTube/X says finalized counts) screenshot must be posted in comments to resolve. Rumors it won't happen count too.
bought Ṁ555 Destiny and Melina f... YES

@YewNevano based on the criteria this should resolve yes either because this market resolved or because of this timestamped moment on YT where Destiny says it's finalised

The red team wins the Superbowl

@YewNevano this should probably NA - the Super Bowl happened in February but both teams wear red.

Sweden officially joins NATO

This can resolve YES

Lex Fridman will interview Tucker Carlson
bought Ṁ555 Lex Fridman will int... YES
Flaco the owl is returned to the NYC Zoo

Flaco, Escaped Central Park Zoo Owl and Defier of Doubts, Is Dead https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/nyregion/flaco-owl-central-park-zoo-dead.html

Per article the corpse was returned to the zoo

Joe Biden will drink a gallon of human semen on Destiny's livestream

I know it ruins the reputibility of the platform but I can't stop laughing whenever I see hyper dumb and obscene answers among serious stuff

This market will reach 100 traders
bought Ṁ500 This market will rea... YES

Resolves yes

The US Olympic team wins the most gold medals

Summer Olympics don't start until July 26th, what is this question measuring?

bought Ṁ50 The US Olympic team ... NO

@houstonEuler It's mostly been measuring how many people don't look up those dates before betting yes, while I keep betting no against them.

June 5th, 2024

Similar to answers like "February 5, 2024", you might want to resolve this joke answer as N/A, since there's limited answer slots

Bitcoin hits 51 k
bought Ṁ90 Bitcoin hits 51 k YES

Resolves yes.

Can we get another mod to come through and resolve a few of these? @Eliza ?
There are more than 10 questions waiting resolution.

bought Ṁ3 June 5th, 2024 NO

@PeterMillerc030 Np, they were all unambiguous. I remain a June 5th Truther, however.

@Joshua @shankypanky Also said "BTC ad on superbowl" resolves no. Which seems true:

https://nypost.com/2024/02/11/business/crypto-ads-absent-once-again-from-super-bowl-2024/

I think "Travis Kelce scores a touchdown" is a no, given the market started on 2/6, he didn't score one in the superbowl:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/15847/travis-kelce

And the NFL pre-season doesn't start until after this market closes:
https://fbschedules.com/nfl-preseason-schedule/

Though I guess that could stay open on the off chance the NFL season gets re-scheduled, or something?

The June 5th market is really a "wait and see" situation. I sold out due to the considerable uncertainty. Most gamblers don't know to quit when they're ahead, but I'm more responsible than that.

unsolicited opinion: maybe this should be closed for new responses for now, since the creator is unresponsive and not maintaining this market?

@PeterMillerc030 I can't unresolve options in a multimarket like this if I make a mistake so I'm hesitant to touch the football ones since I could perhaps be wrong.

Sure I'll flip the toggle, OP can flip it back if he wants though

@shankypanky Looks like @YewNevano was absent for a week, but did place a bet yesterday, so maybe will update this soon?

@PeterMillerc030 yes I spoke with Eliza about that yesterday before he made the comment below. like Joshua says Yew can open it up for submissions again but if they don't come back to give this market attention, leaving it open for submissions could get messy and burdensome for Mods (or spammy) so that's all I was thinking of with the suggestion. Hopefully Yew returns and runs this one though!

BTC ad on Superbowl
bought Ṁ555 BTC ad on Superbowl NO

@YewNevano I resolved one answer on behalf of a user who has asked multiple times. I know this is your market but our guidelines for moderators say we should resolve markets promptly if the creator does not respond.

If you're not able to keep up with this market, you should flip the switch to Creator Only adds answers, and we can continue to help you manage the resolutions.

If you really want to leave them open indefinitely, that's fine, but you need to write that in the description and probably the title also, because users expect answers to be resolved promptly.

Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce (rumors count - not legal proof; for example: ANYONE on Reddit/YouTube/X says finalized counts) screenshot must be posted in comments to resolve. Rumors it won't happen count too.

this one should resolve as a related market resolved yes in January https://manifold.markets/destiny/will-destiny-and-melina-get-divorce

Tucker Carlson speaks with Putin

can this resolve please @YewNevano