Will @IsaacKing misresolve his Holocaust market?
Will @IsaacKing misresolve his Holocaust market?
13
250Ṁ3441
resolved Feb 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if I believe /IsaacKing/did-jews-make-up-the-holocaust-and resolved incorrectly (i.e. it resolved YES).

Resolves NO if I believe that market resolved correctly (i.e. it resolved NO).

(In the case of PROB or N/A this market also resolves PROB or N/A)

Predictions on Predictions
Conspiracy Theories
Meta-Forecasting
Culture War
History
Meta-markets on improper resolution
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ67
2Ṁ36
3Ṁ8
4Ṁ1


Sort by:
2y

This can resolve.

2y

Insurance

2y

@ForrestTaylor Couldn't you get the same insurance by betting YES in my market? The resolutions are identical.

predictedYES 2y

@IsaacKing I could, yes, but I was morally opposed to betting YES in your market. I invested all the Mana I had repeatedly betting your market down to below 1% just because I didn't like the percentage being high. All in all, I lost a few cents on these markets combined- this was worth the moral satisfaction I got from seeing your market close below 1%.

2y

Low liquidity :/

2y

resolved incorrectly (i.e. it resolved YES)

Woah woah woah, what if someone posts compelling evidence of YES‽ You can't just assume a market's resolution like that!

predictedNO 2y

@IsaacKing In that case this market's title is inaccurate.

2y

@IsaacKing https://youtu.be/9ee1WPHzxmU

2y

so this is just a duplicate of the Holocaust market, then? good for arbitrage, I guess

2y

@a people who are reluctant to buy yes on that market for signalling reasons can buy here and let arbitrageurs sell them the reputational privilege (like me!)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules