Will @IsaacKing misresolve his Holocaust market?

Basic

Ṁ3441

resolved Feb 4

Resolved

ALL

Resolves YES if I believe /IsaacKing/did-jews-make-up-the-holocaust-and resolved incorrectly (i.e. it resolved YES).

Resolves NO if I believe that market resolved correctly (i.e. it resolved NO).

(In the case of PROB or N/A this market also resolves PROB or N/A)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Meta-Forecasting

#Predictions on Predictions

#Culture War

#Conspiracy Theories

#History

#Meta-markets on improper resolution

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1,000

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10 Comments

13 Holders

29 Trades

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This can resolve.

Insurance

@ForrestTaylor Couldn't you get the same insurance by betting YES in my market? The resolutions are identical.

predictedYES

@IsaacKing I could, yes, but I was morally opposed to betting YES in your market. I invested all the Mana I had repeatedly betting your market down to below 1% just because I didn't like the percentage being high. All in all, I lost a few cents on these markets combined- this was worth the moral satisfaction I got from seeing your market close below 1%.

Low liquidity :/

resolved incorrectly (i.e. it resolved YES)

Woah woah woah, what if someone posts compelling evidence of YES‽ You can't just assume a market's resolution like that!

predictedNO

@IsaacKing In that case this market's title is inaccurate.

@IsaacKing https://youtu.be/9ee1WPHzxmU

so this is just a duplicate of the Holocaust market, then? good for arbitrage, I guess

@a people who are reluctant to buy yes on that market for signalling reasons can buy here and let arbitrageurs sell them the reputational privilege (like me!)

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