If I create a private strawpoll, I can see the results at any time, but other traders can only see them after it's closed. Is it socially acceptable for me to trade in this case?
This market resolves to the result of the poll. I will not trade on this market.
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I was thinking about the same question for my poll. I chose to make the poll results private so that the predictions would be less based on just what the poll results were so far. So I personally decided not to trade based on the results of my strawpoll, because that would have defeated the point of making it private in the first place.
But those were personal choices, I don't think there's necessarily a clear norm about it. I think authors trading on insider info is generally considered acceptable, although traders might be more willing to trade if the author doesn't of course.
This case does feel kind of bad though. The author choosing to make the poll private and trade on the private results feels like cheating. If there wasn't a good reason for it, I would probably consider that a bad sign, and I as a trader would certainly avoid trading if I observed the author doing this.
