In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status?
6
225Ṁ249
2051
April 1, 2034
8%
2025-2027
21%
2028-2030
31%
2031-2033
15%
2034-2036
10%
2037-2039
5%
2040-2042
5%
2043-2045
5%
2046-2050

Background:

Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed. This question explores the timeline for when an AI-generated book will independently achieve bestseller status.

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve as “YES” if all of the following conditions are met:

  1. Authorship:

    At least 99% of the words generated must authored by AI.

    Overwhelming majority of the core ideas, narrative, content, and exposition are generated by AI.

  2. Minimum Length:

    The book must have a minimum word count of 50,000 words.

  3. Public Documentation:

    There must be credible public documentation verifying AI authorship and sales success—e.g., reputable media coverage and official publisher statements and independent verification.

  4. Appearance on a Best Seller List

    The work must appear for at least one week on any of the following:

    1. New York Times Best Seller List

    2. USA Today Best Seller List

    3. Wall Street Journal Best Seller List

    4. Publishers Weekly Best Seller Lists

    5. Indie Bestseller Lists

  5. The year in which the book is listed in the bestseller is the resolution year. The book must also meet the other requirements.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules