Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if both of the following conditions are met on or before December 31, 2027:

1. Losing the Premiership: Following the next Israeli legislative election (scheduled by October 27, 2026, or held earlier as a snap election), Benjamin Netanyahu is not the Prime Minister of Israel in the government successfully sworn in immediately after that election.

2. Relocating to Miami: Within six months of the newly formed government being sworn in (and no later than December 31, 2027), Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Israel and takes up residence in the Miami metropolitan area (or South Florida) for a continuous period of at least 30 days. This must be confirmed by reputable national or international news organizations (e.g., The Times of Israel, Reuters, Associated Press, or The New York Times).

This market will resolve to NO if:

• Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel following the next legislative election.

• Benjamin Netanyahu loses the premiership but does not relocate to the Miami metropolitan area/South Florida for a continuous 30-day period on or before December 31, 2027.

• No Israeli legislative election takes place before December 31, 2027.

Background

Benjamin Netanyahu is Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister. The next legislative election for the Knesset is scheduled to take place by October 27, 2026, though political friction over key domestic legislation could prompt an earlier snap election.

The speculative idea of Netanyahu "running away to Miami" is a frequent talking point among his critics, largely because his son, Yair Netanyahu, has resided in a luxury apartment tower in Miami since 2023. Additionally, some opponents have theorized that Netanyahu might choose to leave the country to avoid his ongoing domestic legal trials. This market tracks whether he will lose power and subsequently relocate to South Florida.

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