https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/06/world/americas/venezuela-peace-prize-norway.html?unlocked_article_code=1.7U8.1mml.Y3konewwloki&smid=url-share

The ceremony is in Oslo on Dec 10. The Venezuelan government has said that she will be a fugitive if she goes to Oslo.

This market will resolve to yes if she appears in person at the ceremony AND returns safely to Venezuela without being detained or imprisoned, according to mainstream media sources.

If she appears in Oslo, but is detained/imprisoned, it will resolve to no.

If she does not appear in Oslo, it will resolve to no.