Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Flanders (the Flemish Region / Flemish Community) officially secedes from Belgium to become an independent sovereign state, or if Belgium formally dissolves into separate sovereign states including Flanders, on or before December 31, 2070, at 23:59 UTC.

For a YES resolution, at least one of the following conditions must be met prior to the deadline:

1. Flanders officially declares independence and obtains formal recognition as a sovereign state by the United Nations or a majority of UN member states.

2. The Kingdom of Belgium legally completes a constitutional reform, treaty, or formal dissolution process that separates Flanders as an independent nation-state separate from Wallonia and/or Brussels.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Merely passing non-binding resolutions, increasing regional devolution/federal powers within Belgium, or holding an unacknowledged referendum without formal sovereign statehood will not trigger a YES resolution.

Background

Belgium was established as an independent federal constitutional monarchy in 1830. Since the 1970s, Belgium has undergone multiple state reforms transforming it into a complex federal state divided by linguistic regions: Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north, French-speaking Wallonia in the south, and the bilingual Brussels-Capital Region.

Flemish nationalist parties, such as the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) and Vlaams Belang, hold significant political influence in Flanders. Pro-independence and confederalist factions within Flanders argue for greater political autonomy or total secession, citing economic disparities and governance differences between the regions.

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