Intelligent = capable of sending signals across space or capable of spaceflight.

Aliens = another civilization or artificial constructs created by another civilization.

If we encounter aliens, will their behavior indicate that they are effectively highly intelligent "Chinese Rooms"? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room) or [SPOILER ALERT] resemble something similar to "Scramblers" from the novel "Blindsight" by Peter Watts (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blindsight_(Watts_novel)). Scramblers lacked self-awareness and didn't have internal "conscious experiences". The premise of the novel was that intelligence is independent of consciousness.

Resolves to YES when the general scientific consensus is that at least 50% of encountered alien specimens/technological alien signatures (i.e., radio signals) indicate 'Scrambler-similar' aliens.

Resolves to NO otherwise.

Due to slightly subjective resolution criteria I will not bet on this market