How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record? (6.30m-6.40m+)
7
Ṁ275Ṁ7662040
2%
6.30 (world record at time of market creation)
3%
6.31
4%
6.32
6%
6.33
7%
6.34
7%
6.35
6%
6.36
9%
6.37
11%
6.38
12%
6.39
33%
6.40 or greater
Resolves to the highest record Duplantis sets in his career (i. e. only one answer resolves YES - not every level he clears).
Resolves in 2040 OR, if he retires earlier than that, a year after the competition he declares to be his last one (to make room for him changing his mind about retiring). Indoor as well as outdoor competitions count. Must be ratified by whichever organisation is responsible for recognizing official athletics records at the time.
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@WilliamKiely Is there a way to resolve this one NO? Or do all answers have to be resolved simultaneously?
This is a new version of this question: https://manifold.markets/ADings/how-far-will-armand-duplantis-take