Peter Zeihan often claims (example: https://zeihan.com/ask-peter-will-putin-disappear-and-updates-on-russian-demographics/) that Russia will no longer exist in this century.

This resolves to No if:

• In on 1/1/2040 Russia is no longer a country and there is no successor country of approximately (at least 80%) of the geographical size AND population.

Fine Print

• Ukrainian lands annexed by Russia since 2010 do not count towards Russia's population/geographical size.

• Population and geography defined as population in 2040 within the 2023 (ex. Ukrainian disputed land) boundaries.

• A name change alone is obviously not sufficient to resolve to No.

• Powers decentralized to political subdivisions do not count unless they are at at least as decentralized as the Eurozone is as of 2023 (e.g., separate militaries, a general notion of being closer to the sovereignty of a normal country rather than a US state). i.e., Something like the Soviet Union would still count because it is still more centralized than the Eurozone is in 2023.

• No requires that Russia gets smaller If Russia annexes a bunch of land/countries, it still resolves to yes.