UK unemployment rate in Q4 2026 per ONS
6
Ṁ1kṀ3kDec 31
1%
Below 4.7%
16%
>4.7% to 5.0%
64%
>5.0% to 5.3%
16%
>5.3% to 5.6%
4%
>5.6%
What will the UK unemployment rate be in the final quarter of 2026 (October-December 2026) according to ONS Labour Force Survey data?
Current Context:
July-September 2025: 5.0% unemployment rate
IFS baseline forecast: unemployment peaks at 5.1% in 2026
Recent trend: unemployment has been rising since mid-2022
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted, ages 16+) published by the ONS for October-December 2026 in the Employment in the UK bulletin released in early 2027. The rate will be rounded to one decimal place as published by ONS.
Resolution Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk
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