Will a matmul algorithm better than O(n^{2.371552}) [Willians et al. 2023] be published before the end of 2025?

Basic

23

Ṁ8052025

71%

chance

1D

1W

1M

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To date the best announced bound on the asymptotic complexity for matrix multiplication is 2.371552, published as a preprint [1].

Before the end of 2025, will a better bound appear in PEER REVIEWED venue?

Preprints will not be accepted as sufficient evidence, since there are perverse market incentives and verification issues for resolution.

[1] https://cs.paperswithcode.com/paper/new-bounds-for-matrix-multiplication-from

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@AntoineTilloy 2025, description was a typo, thanks for the catch. Most traders will have looked at title and resolution time, not description.

@jskf Market will still resolve yes if the bound is only valid for N>10e100e100, on every 2nd Tuesday of the month, while standing on one leg

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