FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 7 Prop Bets
17
265
4k
resolved Apr 12
Resolved
YES
All four games have an eval of 0.0 at some point after move 10
Resolved
YES
Only one player will have the lowest score after matches are over
Resolved
YES
White wins more games than black
Resolved
YES
Firouzja wins against Gukesh
Resolved
YES
There is a 'Mate in X' according to engines at any point during a game
Resolved
YES
3 or more draws
Resolved
YES
Abasov does not lose against Vidit
Resolved
YES
A game ends via three fold repetition.
Resolved
YES
Hikaru vs Nepo is first to finish
Resolved
YES
All games reach at least 30 moves
Resolved
YES
There is a 3 point or larger advantage swing over the course of a game according to Lichess post-game analysis (e.g +1.5 to - 1.5 or +4.0 to +1.0 )
Resolved
YES
Gukesh or Vidit blunder in time pressure (<15 min on the clock & they make mistake or blunder according to Lichess post game analysis)
Resolved
YES
Someone plays a blunder according to a Lichess post game analysis
Resolved
YES
Total number of live pawns on move 31 across all four games is at least 35
Resolved
YES
Someone does not castle before move 20.
Resolved
YES
Both players have played move 15 within the first hour of game time
Resolved
YES
There is a white knight on the 7th rank at some point
Resolved
YES
At least 2 king moves are played on move 30
Resolved
YES
Someone thinks for 30 minutes for a single move
Resolved
YES
An exchange sacrifice is played

You are welcome to add your own options.

Games start 12th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~19 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.

Games can be followed here: https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2024--open/round-7/X9LGGQoT

Event info: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

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I will resolve rest tomorrow. If anyone has heard any of the name/options about broadcast in the options please post a link. I didnt, but I also wasnt paying attention to it. There might have been 7 world champs for example. If no evidence is posted in due time I will resolve them to NO.

The eval 0 option I believe happened, I will check tomorrow.

@Weezing yes. The three drawn end positions are all 0.0, and it happened several times during Firouzja-Gukesh, for instance after the brilliancy on move 31.

Firouzja wins against Gukesh

insane win bro

bought Ṁ25 Abasov does not lose... YES

@tsaitama Yea, gukesh really needs to get better in time pressure.

Someone thinks for 30 minutes for a single move
bought Ṁ7 Someone thinks for 3... YES

Firouzja move 10?

An exchange sacrifice is played
sold Ṁ10 An exchange sacrific... NO

@diadematus does situation in Hikaru's game count?

@Weezing at what point?

@Weezing An exchange sacrifice occurs when one player gives up a rook for a minor piece. - it can't just be an indirect rook for minor piece. it's an active rook for minor piece trade

bought Ṁ10 An exchange sacrific... NO

ok

meaning only (Nepo + Gukesh) and not just either or joined by a third guy?

bought Ṁ10 Answer #ca6b1cd07e0c NO

@diadematus They both have to be leading, but they can be joined by someone else

Leko namedrops Carlsen regarding his prep vs. Nepo

bought Ṁ67 All four games have ... NO

@diadematus Howell mentions Kramnik('s) infamous Marshall gambit loss to Leko

@diadematus Hess mentions Kasparov in a hypothetical 'layman playing Kasparov' question to Leko

@diadematus Leko mentions Anand in replying to Hess

bought Ṁ90 Answer #82d4e331c0f8 YES

@diadematus Hess mentions that Kasparov's response to this question was "that's how my matches against Karpov were" - WC count is 5 but all the easy world champions are in

we're off to the races. Peter Leko's friend, Rafael Leitao is a 'incredible strategical talent'

Both players have played move 15 within the first hour of game time

You mean all players?

@Sindre

I assumed it means in one game, since it's "both", not "all".

interesting

I put this one Manifold TV, so if you wanna come and chat about the games once it starts: https://manifold.markets/tv/49