FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 8 Prop Bets
24
306
4.7k
resolved Apr 14
Resolved
NO
3 or more draws
Resolved
NO
White wins more games than black
Resolved
YES
Nepo ceases to be sole leader (after all games are done)
Resolved
YES
One of the players half point behind Nepo wins a game (Caruana, Gukesh, Pragg)
Resolved
YES
All games reach at least 30 moves
Resolved
YES
Hikaru wins against Caruana
Resolved
YES
Abasov does not lose against Nepo
Resolved
NO
Pragg wins against Firouzja
Resolved
NO
Vidit wins against Gukesh
Resolved
YES
Indian player wins
Resolved
YES
American player wins
Resolved
YES
A game ends via three fold repetition.
Resolved
NO
Someone does not castle before move 20
Resolved
YES
Someone plays a blunder according to a Lichess post game analysis
Resolved
YES
Gukesh or Vidit blunder in time pressure (<15 min on the clock & they make mistake or blunder according to Lichess post game analysis)
Resolved
NO
Hikaru vs Caruana is first to finish
Resolved
NO
Players on one board have played move 15 within the first hour of game time (combined)
Resolved
YES
An exchange sacrifice is played (rook is directly traded for knight or bishop)
Resolved
NO
4 draws
Resolved
NO
3 decisive games

You are welcome to add your own options.

Games start 13th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (in ~30 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.

Games can be followed here (as well as standings): https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2024--open/round-8/nUycmG6L#boards

Event info: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

One of the broadcasts is here: https://www.twitch.tv/chess24

General rules:

  • When referring to rankings, final rankings are used unless specified otherwise

  • For options that are hard to verify ("X is said on broadcast"), I will give time for people to post evidence for YES and if there is none, it will be resolved NO.

  • Options refer to Open section unless stated otherwise

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I will resolve the rest tomorrow (I need to verify them).

Round 9 market is here: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-330b1533df28

See you there. This was a fun day.

bought Ṁ500 A game ends via thre... YES

didn't Nepo-Abasov just end in a threefold @Weezing

?

bought Ṁ15 A game ends via thre... NO

@diadematus That image doesn't seem to indicate that the game ended in a threefold?

@BoltonBailey Kd5/Kd4 is a standard draw king placement after players draw/claim a draw

@diadematus wait bruh I accidentally bet 790 on no because of that because it didn't happen in pragg's game

bought Ṁ10 A game ends via thre... NO

@diadematus Then why is Kd5 indicated as a move included in the lichess record of the game there? Shouldn't the record show the game ending in a draw without that as a move 63 for black?

bought Ṁ70 A game ends via thre... YES

I hope Weezing careful enough before resolving. Better to take your time.

yeah, I got confused too

@BoltonBailey because lichess is only transmitting the live moves from the dgt boards. this is standard shit...nothing confusing or controversial here

@harfe The game is a draw if a position occurs (at least) three times during the game. (Intervening moves do not matter.) It must be claimed by the player with the turn to move. The claim is made:

(a) If the position is about to appear for the third time, the player making the claim first writes their move on their scoresheet and notifies the arbiter that they intend to make this move.

- the game was an obvious threefold...only if you're not familiar with dgt board etiquette would you think otherwise

opened a Ṁ400 A game ends via thre... YES at 92% order

@diadematus well, I am the biggest YES holder so you don't need to convince me.

@diadematus Yea it was a threefold I checked the VOD, they repeated and called the arbiter. Even commentators said it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3MC3Ui8Kpk

@diadematus @BoltonBailey FIDE has the correct ending minus the customary king placement

@diadematus Yes, you're right, if you look at the tape you can see Abasov stop the clock before the arbiter puts the king on the square.

@kevin5050 Yea I am sorry about that, DGT boards can be kinda confusing. But correct resolution is YES.

I might send you some of it back tomorrow to make it less painful.

@Weezing Oh shit they deleted their account :(

@Weezing Well, seems they were banned, not sure why though or who banned them actually, seems deleting your account bans you

bought Ṁ10 Answer #2a0ce63bd3be YES

Very impressive defense from Abasov.

wow, what a crazy day

bought Ṁ10 Answer #5d2e8a62382d YES

@kevin5050 Yep, my prediction was completely wrong :D

bought Ṁ150 Answer #b3257ba05dc5 YES

this can resolve, abasov's a8 rook did not move

bought Ṁ10 Answer #406ab9cd33d6 NO

What about time added during time control? @brwa

bought Ṁ3 Answer #406ab9cd33d6 NO

@Weezing I had in mind "at any point after move 20, the time on Vidit's clock is > time on Gukesh's clock," so for example if Vidit makes a move, gains 30s, thus taking him to more time than Gukesh, it would resolve YES.

apparently I cannot bet this below 1.0%? Imo that would be a bad change from manifold.

bought Ṁ10 Answer #406ab9cd33d6 YES

@harfe Yea this is the recent change, because people usually use it when the event has already happened.