FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 9 Prop Bets
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25
Ṁ28k
resolved Apr 14
Resolved
NO
Someone takes a sole lead of the tournament
Resolved
NO
Someone catches up to to the leaders (someone who wasn't leading is leading after all rounds finish)
Resolved
YES
Indian player wins
Resolved
YES
3 or more draws
Resolved
NO
3 or more decisive games
Resolved
NO
Hikaru wins against Vidit
Resolved
NO
Gukesh wins against Pragg
Resolved
NO
Firouzja wins against Nepo
Resolved
NO
Caruana wins against Abasov
Resolved
NO
Gukesh or Vidit blunder in time pressure (<15 min on the clock & they make mistake or blunder according to Lichess post game analysis)
Resolved
NO
Someone thinks for 30 minutes for a single move
Resolved
NO
There will be a quick draw under 25 moves.
Resolved
YES
A rating underdog (official Elo) wins a game
Resolved
YES
White wins more games than black
Resolved
YES
All games reach at least 25 moves
Resolved
NO
There are more knights than bishops on the move 20 on all boards combined
Resolved
YES
Someone does not castle before move 20
Resolved
YES
Someone plays a blunder according to a Lichess post game analysis
Resolved
NO
Gukesh or Vidit blunder in time pressure (<15 min on the clock & they make mistake or blunder according to Lichess post game analysis)
Resolved
YES
There are at least 2 fianchetto bishops before move 15.

You are welcome to add your own options.

Games start 14th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~19 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.

Games can be followed here: https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2024--open/round-9/A7SWsX0x

Event info: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

One of the broadcasts will be streamed here: https://www.twitch.tv/chess24

General rules:

  • When referring to rankings, final rankings are used unless specified otherwise

  • For options that are hard to verify ("X is said on broadcast"), I will give time for people to post evidence for YES and if there is none, it will be resolved NO.

  • Options refer to Open section unless stated otherwise

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Round 10: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-d3a2759d64db

I'd argue this was met by him having <6 min when he played 35.Be1, but due to the wording it's not obvious to me if move 40 counts or not.

@Sindre hm true, sorry, I missed that, I will send you mana back

Commentators predict 3-4 decisive results... But something tells me they have different incentives than making best predictions.

@Weezing I was thinking this when I heard them say that haha

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 45% order

Limit order at 45% if you want it @jaseMalinowski

@Weezing Lol, tempting. I've bet enough for now though I think. I've seen Ian defend some pretty unpleasant positions.

Also Alireza's very slow.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@jaseMalinowski Yea, it does not look pleasant, but I think Ian defends it.

EDIT: miss-click

EDIT: miss-click

@diadematus what depth? Or using post game analysis?

@Weezing at least depth 30 on lichess...

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