FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 11 Bets
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Plus
23
Ṁ24k
resolved Apr 18
Resolved
YES
Someone takes sole lead of the tournament
Resolved
NO
One of the trailing players (Pragg, Caruana, Hikaru) catches up to to the leaders
Resolved
NO
Indian player wins
Resolved
NO
3 or more draws
Resolved
NO
3 or more decisive games
Resolved
NO
Pragg wins against Hikaru
Resolved
NO
Vidit wins against Nepo
Resolved
NO
Gukesh wins against Caruana
Resolved
NO
Abasov does not lose to Firouzja
Resolved
YES
American player wins
Resolved
NO
There is still 5 players leading or half point behind leaders after round is over
Resolved
NO
A rating underdog (official Elo) wins a game
Resolved
NO
White wins more games than black
Resolved
YES
Nepo wins against Vidit
Resolved
YES
Hikaru wins against Pragg
Resolved
NO
Caruana wins against Gukesh
Resolved
NO
4 draws
Resolved
YES
A game lasts more than 60 moves
Resolved
NO
An exchange sacrifice is played (rook is directly traded for knight or bishop)
Resolved
YES
Vidit will take 1 hour or more for the first 15 moves

You are welcome to add your own options.

Games start 17th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~33 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.

Games can be followed here: https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2024--open/round-11/46ohJ8Qt

Matches are (white vs black):

  • Praggnanandhaa R vs Hikaru Nakamura

  • Vidit Gujrathi vs Ian Nepomniachtchi

  • Gukesh D vs Fabiano Caruana

  • Alireza Fizrouzja vs Nijat Abasov

Event info + standings: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

One of the broadcasts will be streamed here: https://www.twitch.tv/chess24

General rules:

  • When referring to rankings, final rankings after the round is over are are used unless specified otherwise

  • For options that are hard to verify ("X is said on broadcast"), I will give time for people to post evidence for YES and if there is none, it will be resolved NO.

  • Options refer to Open section unless stated otherwise

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At the end Pragg was down a bishop for a pawn (2 points) for several moves.

@Weezing Interpreted 2+ as >2 not >=2 ?

@ismellpillows it can be exactly 2

Thanks for kind words.

Next market is here: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-e496fc3427df

@Weezing Thanks for creating these markets and resolving so quickly! 🙂

bought Ṁ200 NO

Rest will be resolved later.

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 9% order

why NO? so far we only have 1 draw, so 3 wins is still possible. What am I missing?

sold Ṁ18 NO

@harfe yea, sorry, mistake. I will refund later.

bought Ṁ40 NO

@Weezing thx. you will refund me only when it actually happens, correct? I kinda liked my cheap YES shares there.

@harfe I can either way, but currently send button seems broken...

@Weezing maybe you can instead ask the admins to resolve to YES if it actually happens?

@harfe IIRC this type of market cant be re-resolved

@Weezing thanks for the refund I have received! Also, thanks for doing these markets!

how are the pawns in the game that already finished counted? as 0 pawns since they didnt reach move 35, or as 11 pawns?

@harfe 0

aka "opposite side castling" ;)

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