Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if I (the market creator) receive a direct message (DM) on Manifold Markets from another user pitching, promoting, or inquiring about a network marketing or multi-level marketing (MLM) opportunity on or before February 22, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).

• This market resolves to NO if no such DM is received by the deadline.

• Verification: I will post a screenshot of the qualifying DM in the comment section of this market as proof of receipt.

• Definition of MLM/Network Marketing: The DM must explicitly pitch or reference a multi-level marketing company (e.g., Amway, Herbalife, Primerica) or a business opportunity that relies on recruiting a downline or team to earn commissions. Standard advertising agency pitches, generic crypto projects (unless structured as an MLM/pyramid scheme), and regular trading/market-related discussions do not qualify.

• Edge Cases:

  • Self-messages or DMs from accounts proven to be controlled by me (alt accounts) will not count toward a YES resolution.

  • If Manifold Markets permanently disables or removes the DM feature before the deadline without a qualifying message having been received prior, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

• Manifold Markets features a built-in direct messaging (DM) system. Under Manifold's platform conduct guidelines, unsolicited promotional direct messages are considered spam and are technically prohibited.

• Multi-level marketing (MLM) and network marketing rely on non-salaried sales networks to sell products or services, often heavily emphasizing recruitment. This market bets on whether an MLM distributor or automated spammer will target the creator's inbox on the platform prior to the 2027 cutoff.

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